2007 · Week 4

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

16·26

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Joey Harrington

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

+1.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapFalcons
  • -0.015EPA / play-0.148
  • 45.4%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.167
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +3.67CPOE-3.93
  • 44.5%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.07
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5HOU @ ATL19–21ATL
2019 · W5ATL @ HOU32–53HOU
2015 · W4HOU @ ATL21–48ATL
2011 · W13ATL @ HOU10–17HOU
2003 · W13ATL @ HOU13–17HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:2139Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:15642Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 8:14774Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 5:34868Touchdown7–10
HOUQ1 1:13422Punt7–10
ATLQ2 14:30611Punt7–10
HOUQ2 10:5626Turnover7–10
ATLQ2 10:13529Touchdown7–17
HOUQ2 8:22522Turnover on downs7–17
ATLQ2 5:38820Field goal7–20
HOUQ2 1:52747Field goal10–20
ATLQ2 0:0500End of half10–20
HOUQ3 15:00961Field goal13–20
ATLQ3 10:131277Field goal13–23
HOUQ3 4:00864Field goal16–23
ATLQ4 14:521152Field goal16–26
HOUQ4 8:161-6Turnover16–26
ATLQ4 8:043-5Missed field goal16–26
HOUQ4 6:031177Missed field goal16–26
ATLQ4 2:0734Punt16–26
HOUQ4 1:02522End of half16–26

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub28/4031710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne15624.10
Matt Schaub5193.80
Jameel Cook263.00

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington23/2922320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn18623.40
Jerious Norwood9293.20
Artose Pinner200.00
Joey Harrington1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.07