Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.148
- 45.4%Success rate37.3%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.67CPOE-3.93
- 44.5%Third-down rate36.4%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.07
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 28/40 | 317 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 23/29 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07