Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.044
- 40.5%Success rate42.7%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.20CPOE-0.86
- 31.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.42Points / drive1.56
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. PHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/36 | 217 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 12 | 52 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 6 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 19/25 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 14/23 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 61 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 4 | 4 | 134 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58