2015 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·19

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapEagles
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.044
  • 40.5%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.20CPOE-0.86
  • 31.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.56
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.6 points. PHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7MIA @ PHI17–31PHI
2019 · W13PHI @ MIA31–37MIA
2011 · W14PHI @ MIA26–10PHI
2007 · W11MIA @ PHI7–17PHI
2003 · W15PHI @ MIA34–27PHI
1999 · W7PHI @ MIA13–16MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–PHI
MIAQ1 15:001039Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 10:27464Touchdown3–7
MIAQ1 8:431-1Safety3–9
PHIQ1 8:381063Touchdown3–16
MIAQ1 4:43519Punt3–16
PHIQ1 2:001152Missed field goal3–16
MIAQ2 12:511074Field goal6–16
PHIQ2 8:18527Punt6–16
MIAQ2 6:37212Touchdown13–16
PHIQ2 5:523-17Punt13–16
MIAQ2 4:503-2Punt13–16
PHIQ2 2:57721Punt13–16
MIAQ2 0:54512Punt13–16
PHIQ2 0:1733End of half13–16
PHIQ3 15:00742Punt13–16
MIAQ3 12:55518Punt13–16
PHIQ3 9:3154Punt13–16
MIAQ3 7:1936Punt13–16
PHIQ3 6:19837Punt13–16
MIAQ3 3:09783Touchdown20–16
PHIQ4 14:551656Field goal20–19
MIAQ4 10:203-1Punt20–19
PHIQ4 9:24522Punt20–19
MIAQ4 7:5836Punt20–19
PHIQ4 6:27641Turnover20–19
MIAQ4 4:26826Punt20–19
PHIQ4 1:40621Turnover on downs20–19
MIAQ4 0:5300End of half20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/3621720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi6488.00
Lamar Miller16432.70
Jarvis Landry166.00
Rishard Matthews144.00
Ryan Tannehill2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews56930
Jarvis Landry712521
Lamar Miller68501
Greg Jennings1190
Dion Sims1180
Jordan Cameron1350
Kenny Stills0400
Damien Williams0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford19/2523610
Mark Sanchez14/2315601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray22612.80
Ryan Mathews7182.61
Mark Sanchez242.00
Darren Sproles300.00
Sam Bradford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek441340
Zach Ertz710680
DeMarco Murray68580
Darren Sproles56340
Nelson Agholor34320
Josh Huff34231
Ryan Mathews23220
Jordan Matthews35210
Miles Austin0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.58