Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play+0.041
- 40.4%Success rate45.5%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.017
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.12CPOE-0.87
- 37.0%Third-down rate43.4%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.36Points / drive1.66
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. PHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:47 | 6 | 51 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:53 | 12 | 76 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 0:11 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 14:35 | 4 | 39 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:28 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 10:43 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 7:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q2 6:40 | 9 | 43 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 2:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q2 1:34 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:33 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 7–3 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 11:09 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q3 8:04 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 3:56 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q3 1:24 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q4 11:00 | 9 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q4 6:40 | 11 | 34 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q4 0:19 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 7–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 9/22 | 109 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 0 |
| John Beck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 13/19 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3/11 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 32 | 148 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.48