1999 · Week 7

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

13·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Damon Huard

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -9

Total

34

Model margin

+2.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapDolphins
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.116
  • 33.4%Success rate37.3%
  • -0.199EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.186
  • 6.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 31.2%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 0.90Points / drive1.17
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7MIA @ PHI17–31PHI
2019 · W13PHI @ MIA31–37MIA
2015 · W10MIA @ PHI20–19MIA
2011 · W14PHI @ MIA26–10PHI
2007 · W11MIA @ PHI7–17PHI
2003 · W15PHI @ MIA34–27PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIA
PHIQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:011053Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 6:0539Punt0–3
MIAQ1 4:30663Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 1:041046Field goal3–10
MIAQ2 11:10417Punt3–10
PHIQ2 8:4034Turnover3–10
MIAQ2 7:49417Field goal3–13
PHIQ2 6:2632Punt3–13
MIAQ2 5:203-2Punt3–13
PHIQ2 3:35830Turnover3–13
MIAQ2 0:3116End of half3–13
MIAQ3 15:001252Punt3–13
PHIQ3 7:553-5Punt3–13
MIAQ3 6:25515Opp touchdown10–13
PHIQ3 3:4700Opp touchdown10–13
MIAQ3 3:47732Field goal10–16
PHIQ4 14:5537Punt10–16
MIAQ4 12:3849Punt10–16
PHIQ4 10:02840Field goal13–16
MIAQ4 6:08724Turnover13–16
PHIQ4 2:37634Missed field goal13–16
MIAQ4 0:5200End of half13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson13/2510801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley19733.80
Doug Pederson3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Johnson410590
Jed Weaver45270
Torrance Small12100
Dietrich Jells1280
Duce Staley2210
Luther Broughton0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Damon Huard15/2114201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cecil Collins26973.70
J.J. Johnson5357.01
Damon Huard6122.00
Stanley Pritchett252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
O.J. McDuffie44410
Troy Drayton44380
Tony Martin36260
Oronde Gadsden13170
Hunter Goodwin11140
Cecil Collins1160
Stanley Pritchett1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.55