Closing spread
MIA -9
Total
34
Model margin
+2.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.116
- 33.4%Success rate37.3%
- -0.199EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.186
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 31.2%Third-down rate34.2%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 0.90Points / drive1.17
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 13/25 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 15/21 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Collins | 26 | 97 | 3.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Damon Huard | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. McDuffie | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55