Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
52
Model margin
+0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.061
- 47.3%Success rate46.3%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.007
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.40CPOE+3.86
- 42.5%Third-down rate47.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.34Points / drive2.30
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. PHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/32 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 15 | 88 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/31 | 279 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 15 | 137 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95