2023 · Week 7

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

17·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

52

Model margin

+0.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapEagles
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.061
  • 47.3%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.007
  • 11.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.40CPOE+3.86
  • 42.5%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.30
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.6 points. PHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W13PHI @ MIA31–37MIA
2015 · W10MIA @ PHI20–19MIA
2011 · W14PHI @ MIA26–10PHI
2007 · W11MIA @ PHI7–17PHI
2003 · W15PHI @ MIA34–27PHI
1999 · W7PHI @ MIA13–16MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001266Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 7:54518Punt0–3
PHIQ1 5:123-8Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 4:24711Field goal3–3
PHIQ1 0:591146Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 11:2537Punt3–10
PHIQ2 9:591275Touchdown3–17
MIAQ2 3:10877Touchdown10–17
PHIQ2 0:391-10End of half10–17
MIAQ3 15:00838Punt10–17
PHIQ3 10:12518Punt10–17
MIAQ3 7:12643Turnover on downs16–17
PHIQ3 4:0810Opp touchdown17–17
PHIQ3 4:02875Touchdown17–24
MIAQ3 0:15850Turnover17–24
PHIQ4 11:211478Touchdown17–31
MIAQ4 4:4640Turnover on downs17–31
PHIQ4 3:19219End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa23/3221611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert9455.00
Salvon Ahmed231.50
Tua Tagovailoa1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill1115881
Jaylen Waddle66630
Cedrick Wilson Jr.23480
Braxton Berrios1270
Raheem Mostert1360
Jeff Wilson1140
Salvon Ahmed1200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts23/3127921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift15624.10
Jalen Hurts11211.91
Kenny Gainwell8162.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown10151371
Dallas Goedert55771
DeVonta Smith45490
D'Andre Swift33130
Julio Jones1130
Olamide Zaccheaus0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95