Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
37
Model margin
+0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.093
- 43.4%Success rate39.3%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.086
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate33.0%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.99Points / drive1.45
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/27 | 236 | 0 | 1 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1/1 | 25 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 21/40 | 240 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.48