2019 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

31·37

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -10.5

Total

45

Model margin

-0.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapDolphins
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.076
  • 44.9%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.268
  • 8.4%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -1.01CPOE-2.66
  • 45.1%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.62
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7MIA @ PHI17–31PHI
2015 · W10MIA @ PHI20–19MIA
2011 · W14PHI @ MIA26–10PHI
2007 · W11MIA @ PHI7–17PHI
2003 · W15PHI @ MIA34–27PHI
1999 · W7PHI @ MIA13–16MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:50318Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 13:5431Punt7–0
PHIQ1 11:20518Field goal10–0
MIAQ1 10:104-5Punt10–0
PHIQ1 8:26640Punt10–0
MIAQ1 5:45684Touchdown10–7
PHIQ1 3:051155Field goal13–7
MIAQ2 11:091566Touchdown13–14
PHIQ2 4:401280Touchdown21–14
MIAQ2 0:0600End of half21–14
PHIQ3 15:00747Touchdown28–14
MIAQ3 11:44675Touchdown28–20
PHIQ3 8:45745Missed field goal28–20
MIAQ3 4:34746Touchdown28–26
PHIQ3 1:1061Punt28–26
MIAQ4 14:421084Touchdown28–34
PHIQ4 11:0636Punt28–34
MIAQ4 9:301455Field goal28–37
PHIQ4 3:37656Field goal31–37
MIAQ4 1:5134Punt31–37
PHIQ4 0:08220Turnover31–37

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz28/4631031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders17834.90
Jay Ajayi294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery9161371
Dallas Goedert67660
Nelson Agholor36410
Zach Ertz36240
Miles Sanders55221
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside12151
Greg Ward1350

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick27/3936531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Albert Wilson23115.50
Myles Gaskin22010.00
Patrick Laird1050.51
Ryan Fitzpatrick320.70
Kalen Ballage300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker7101592
Mike Gesicki57791
Patrick Laird45430
Allen Hurns34330
Albert Wilson55320
Durham Smythe23130
Myles Gaskin1160
Jason Sanders1111
Clive Walford0100
Isaiah Ford0100
Kalen Ballage0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.69