Closing spread
PHI -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.076
- 44.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.268
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.3%
- -1.01CPOE-2.66
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 2.01Points / drive1.62
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 28/46 | 310 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 9 | 16 | 137 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 5 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/39 | 365 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 10 | 5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 7 | 10 | 159 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Clive Walford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.69