Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play-0.033
- 47.0%Success rate39.0%
- +0.077EPA / dropback+0.032
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.116
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.5%
- +0.41CPOE+2.28
- 42.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.63
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15/30 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 27 | 38 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 11/19 | 95 | 1 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 6/10 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 8 | 27 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.44