2011 · Week 14

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

26·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapDolphins
  • +0.053EPA / play-0.033
  • 47.0%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback+0.032
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.116
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +0.41CPOE+2.28
  • 42.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.63
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.6 points. MIA are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7MIA @ PHI17–31PHI
2019 · W13PHI @ MIA31–37MIA
2015 · W10MIA @ PHI20–19MIA
2007 · W11MIA @ PHI7–17PHI
2003 · W15PHI @ MIA34–27PHI
1999 · W7PHI @ MIA13–16MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–MIA
PHIQ1 15:00834Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:56315Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:47610Punt0–7
MIAQ1 7:12520Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:234-8Punt0–7
MIAQ1 2:5634Missed field goal0–7
PHIQ1 1:34654Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 13:3433Turnover7–7
PHIQ2 12:0821Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 11:56311Turnover14–7
PHIQ2 10:42412Field goal17–7
MIAQ2 8:493-3Punt17–7
MIAQ2 6:551-3Turnover17–7
PHIQ2 6:48473Touchdown24–7
MIAQ2 4:43630Turnover on downs24–7
PHIQ2 1:5236Punt24–7
MIAQ2 0:5735Punt24–7
PHIQ2 0:1510End of half24–7
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt24–7
PHIQ3 13:27515Turnover24–7
MIAQ3 10:4839Punt24–7
PHIQ3 8:3731Punt24–7
MIAQ3 7:39535Field goal24–10
PHIQ3 4:52434Punt24–10
MIAQ3 2:44941Turnover on downs24–10
PHIQ4 14:263-1Punt24–10
MIAQ4 12:503-7Punt24–10
PHIQ4 10:354-5Punt26–10
MIAQ4 9:071-8Safety26–10
PHIQ4 9:0233Punt26–10
MIAQ4 7:041141Turnover on downs26–10
PHIQ4 4:09710Punt26–10
MIAQ4 1:0122End of half26–10

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick15/3020811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy27381.42
Mike Vick294.50
Ronnie Brown341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson46591
Brent Celek45390
Jason Avant24350
LeSean McCoy36330
Riley Cooper13290
Jeremy Maclin14130
Chad Hall0100
Clay Harbor0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore11/199511
J.P. Losman6/106000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush141037.40
Daniel Thomas740.60
J.P. Losman210.50
Matt Moore111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Fasano38560
Reggie Bush56270
Brandon Marshall48271
Brian Hartline11240
Davone Bess24120
Daniel Thomas2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.44