Closing spread
CIN -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/27 | 233 | 3 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 61 | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.