Closing spread
CIN -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutAndrew DonnalTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCase KeenumQBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableGreg ZuerleinKright Groin· Limited
- QuestionableRob HavensteinTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableRobert QuinnDEHip· DNP
- QuestionableTrumaine JohnsonCBThigh· DNP
Bengals
- OutDarqueze DennardCBShoulder· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableAdam JonesCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionablePat SimsDTKnee· Limited
- DNPAndrew WhitworthTNot Injury Related
- DNPLeon HallCBNot Injury Related
- ProbableAndre SmithTThigh· Full
- ProbableAndy DaltonQBGroin· Full
- ProbableDre KirkpatrickCBKnee· Full
- ProbableMarvin JonesWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableShawn WilliamsSAnkle· Full
- ProbableTyler EifertTEKnee· Full
- ProbableVontaze BurfictLBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:06 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:18 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 4:41 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:15 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 1:59 | 13 | 80 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:10 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 8:29 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 3:27 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:16 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q3 8:32 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 7:01 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 7–31 |
| LA | Q3 5:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–31 |
| CIN | Q3 4:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LA | Q3 2:05 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| CIN | Q4 14:24 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 13:04 | 7 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 7–31 |
| CIN | Q4 9:57 | 7 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 6:25 | 12 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 7–31 |
| CIN | Q4 3:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 1:40 | 7 | 31 | End of half | 7–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/27 | 233 | 3 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 8 | 61 | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.