NFL Intelligence

2011 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·13

Rams

St. Louis

QB Kellen Clemens

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

STL perspective

Push chance

3.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

OutDontay MochLBIllness· DNP
DoubtfulBrian LeonardRBKnee· DNP
QuestionableAndre SmithTAnkle· DNP
QuestionableChris PressleyRBKnee· DNP
ProbableCarlos DunlapDEHamstring· Limited
ProbableCedric BensonRBBack· Limited
ProbableChris CrockerSKnee· Limited
ProbableFrostee RuckerDEHamstring· Limited
ProbableGibril WilsonSBack· Limited
ProbableNate ClementsCBHamstring· Limited
ProbableManny LawsonLBAnkle· Full

Rams

OutA.J. FeeleyQBrt. thumb· DNP
DoubtfulMark LeVoirTGroin· DNP
DoubtfulSam BradfordQBAnkle· DNP
QuestionableChris LongDEAnkle· Limited
QuestionableFred RobbinsDTBack· Full
QuestionableJames HallDEChest· DNP
QuestionableJustin KingCBShoulder· DNP
QuestionableQuinn PorterRBAbdomen· Full
ProbableCraig DahlSAnkle· Full
ProbableEugene SimsDEAnkle· Full
ProbableJosh GordyCBAbdomen· Full
ProbableStephen SpachTEHead· Full

Win probability

Rams
Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 37.1 points. STL are 4-2-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2023 · W3	LA @ CIN	16–19	CIN
2021 · playoffs	LA @ CIN	23–20	RAMS
2019 · W8	CIN @ LA	10–24	RAMS
2015 · W12	STL @ CIN	7–31	CIN
2007 · W14	STL @ CIN	10–19	CIN
2003 · W16	CIN @ STL	10–27	RAMS
1999 · W4	STL @ CIN	38–10	RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	CIN–STL
LA	Q1 15:00	6	36	Punt	0–0
CIN	Q1 12:00	8	62	Field goal	3–0
LA	Q1 8:59	9	43	Missed field goal	3–0
CIN	Q1 3:45	10	50	Turnover	3–0
LA	Q2 14:05	3	1	Punt	3–0
CIN	Q2 12:18	3	8	Punt	3–0
LA	Q2 10:11	3	4	Punt	3–0
CIN	Q2 9:06	3	9	Punt	3–0
LA	Q2 7:31	6	16	Field goal	3–3
CIN	Q2 4:18	7	6	Turnover on downs	3–3
LA	Q2 1:17	5	32	Field goal	3–6
CIN	Q2 0:26	2	-3	End of half	3–6
CIN	Q3 15:00	10	51	Field goal	6–6
LA	Q3 10:22	5	35	Punt	6–6
CIN	Q3 7:00	7	30	Punt	6–6
LA	Q3 3:20	3	-5	Punt	6–6
CIN	Q3 1:33	4	12	Touchdown	13–6
LA	Q3 0:12	7	28	Punt	13–6
CIN	Q4 11:45	6	52	Touchdown	20–6
LA	Q4 9:14	3	5	Punt	20–6
CIN	Q4 7:44	3	2	Punt	20–6
LA	Q4 6:14	11	40	Turnover on downs	20–6
CIN	Q4 2:33	3	6	Punt	20–6
LA	Q4 2:08	5	70	Touchdown	20–13
CIN	Q4 1:08	0	0	End of half	20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Andy Dalton	15/26	179	0	1

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Cedric Benson	22	76	3.5	1
Bernard Scott	7	20	2.9	1
Cedric Peerman	2	8	4.0	0
Andrew Hawkins	1	8	8.0	0
Andy Dalton	2	-2	-1.0	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
A.J. Green	6	9	115
Jermaine Gresham	3	5	16
Jerome Simpson	2	5	14
Cedric Benson	1	2	11
Andrew Hawkins	1	2	10
Ryan Whalen	1	1	7
Colin Cochart	1	1	6
Cedric Peerman	0	1	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
Home-field advantage+2.49
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential-0.08
Expected margin+3.12

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.