Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. STL are 4-2-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/26 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 9 | 115 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Colin Cochart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.