2019 · Week 8

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

10·24

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LA -12

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRams
  • -0.097EPA / play+0.001
  • 40.3%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.159
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -5.27CPOE-1.88
  • 36.0%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.95
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 37.1 points. LA are 4-2-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3LA @ CIN16–19CIN
2021 · playoffsLA @ CIN23–20RAMS
2015 · W12STL @ CIN7–31CIN
2011 · W15CIN @ STL20–13CIN
2007 · W14STL @ CIN10–19CIN
2003 · W16CIN @ STL10–27RAMS
1999 · W4STL @ CIN38–10RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–LA
CINQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:461295Field goal0–3
CINQ1 6:411070Field goal3–3
LAQ2 14:578102Touchdown3–10
CINQ2 10:431171Touchdown10–10
LAQ2 5:18375Touchdown10–17
CINQ2 3:57946Punt10–17
LAQ2 1:06836Punt10–17
LAQ3 15:001075Touchdown10–24
CINQ3 10:141030Punt10–24
LAQ3 4:31749Punt10–24
CINQ3 0:5341Punt10–24
LAQ4 14:04420Punt10–24
CINQ4 12:1436Punt10–24
LAQ4 10:4533Punt10–24
CINQ4 9:451677Turnover on downs10–24
LAQ4 5:10515Punt10–24
CINQ4 1:53980Turnover on downs10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton32/5232910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon17663.90
Giovani Bernard33110.30
Andy Dalton144.00
Tyler Boyd133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alex Erickson67970
Tyler Eifert69740
Tyler Boyd69650
Auden Tate513650
Giovani Bernard22140
Joe Mixon44111
C.J. Uzomah1240
Stanley Morgan1130
Andy Dalton11-40

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff17/3137220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson11494.50
Todd Gurley10444.41
Robert Woods461.50
Josh Reynolds1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp7102201
Josh Reynolds38731
Robert Woods22360
Darrell Henderson23200
Gerald Everett23150
Tyler Higbee1180
Brandin Cooks0100
Todd Gurley0100
Mike Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.86