Closing spread
LA -12
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play+0.001
- 40.3%Success rate44.3%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -5.27CPOE-1.88
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.95
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. LA are 4-2-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 32/52 | 329 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Erickson | 6 | 7 | 97 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 5 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 17/31 | 372 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 220 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86