Closing spread
CIN -10
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/29 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 1 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.