Closing spread
CIN -10
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:36 | 8 | 29 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:32 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:48 | 10 | 84 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:50 | 5 | 61 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 6:37 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:31 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 3:16 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:03 | 7 | 63 | End of half | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q3 14:06 | 14 | 53 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 4:41 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CIN | Q3 2:24 | 4 | 56 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| LA | Q3 0:19 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 7–16 |
| CIN | Q4 10:40 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LA | Q4 8:33 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| CIN | Q4 5:08 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 10–19 |
| LA | Q4 2:22 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 10–19 |
| CIN | Q4 1:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/29 | 189 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 1 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.