Closing spread
LA -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.063
- 46.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.094
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.40CPOE+5.14
- 42.6%Third-down rate40.1%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.32Points / drive2.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/40 | 283 | 3 | 2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 10 | 92 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/33 | 263 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1/1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 7 | 100 | 2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage0.00
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.16