2021 · SB

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

23·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -4.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBengals
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.063
  • 46.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.094
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.40CPOE+5.14
  • 42.6%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3LA @ CIN16–19CIN
2019 · W8CIN @ LA10–24RAMS
2015 · W12STL @ CIN7–31CIN
2011 · W15CIN @ STL20–13CIN
2007 · W14STL @ CIN10–19CIN
2003 · W16CIN @ STL10–27RAMS
1999 · W4STL @ CIN38–10RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CIN
LAQ1 15:0051Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:5449Turnover on downs0–0
LAQ1 9:57650Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 6:2236Punt7–0
LAQ1 4:48312Punt7–0
CINQ1 2:09559Field goal7–3
LAQ1 0:28675Touchdown13–3
CINQ2 12:511275Touchdown13–10
LAQ2 5:47837Turnover13–10
CINQ2 2:0057Punt13–10
LAQ2 0:3039Punt13–10
CINQ2 0:0400End of half13–10
CINQ3 15:00175Touchdown13–17
LAQ3 14:4810Turnover13–17
CINQ3 14:38711Field goal13–20
LAQ3 10:15952Field goal16–20
CINQ3 5:583-3Punt16–20
LAQ3 4:283-3Punt16–20
CINQ3 2:4735Punt16–20
LAQ3 0:3633Punt16–20
CINQ4 14:05512Punt16–20
LAQ4 11:2936Punt16–20
CINQ4 9:58724Punt16–20
LAQ4 6:131872Touchdown23–20
CINQ4 1:25526Turnover on downs23–20
LAQ4 0:3900End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4028332
Cooper Kupp0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers13211.60
Cooper Kupp177.00
Darrell Henderson471.80
Matthew Stafford362.00
Sony Michel221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp810922
Odell Beckham Jr.23521
Brycen Hopkins44470
Darrell Henderson35430
Van Jefferson48230
Cam Akers34140
Ben Skowronek25120
Matthew Stafford0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow22/3326310
Joe Mixon1/1610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon15724.80
Ja'Marr Chase144.00
Joe Burrow231.50
Samaje Perine200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins471002
Ja'Marr Chase58890
Tyler Boyd56480
Mike Thomas11170
C.J. Uzomah22110
Chris Evans1230
Joe Mixon5610
Samaje Perine0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage0.00
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.16