Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.001
- 44.9%Success rate44.4%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.54CPOE+2.09
- 41.4%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.13Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/33 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/49 | 259 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 12 | 15 | 141 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Charlie Jones | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.69