2023 · Week 3

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

16·19

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBengals
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.001
  • 44.9%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -3.54CPOE+2.09
  • 41.4%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.91
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · playoffsLA @ CIN23–20RAMS
2019 · W8CIN @ LA10–24RAMS
2015 · W12STL @ CIN7–31CIN
2011 · W15CIN @ STL20–13CIN
2007 · W14STL @ CIN10–19CIN
2003 · W16CIN @ STL10–27RAMS
1999 · W4STL @ CIN38–10RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CIN
CINQ1 15:00837Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 11:26743Field goal3–0
CINQ1 8:22313Punt3–0
LAQ1 5:5539Punt3–0
CINQ1 4:221248Field goal3–3
LAQ2 12:55670Field goal6–3
CINQ2 9:49611Punt6–3
LAQ2 7:0438Punt6–3
CINQ2 4:46413Punt6–3
LAQ2 3:4310Turnover6–3
CINQ2 3:3842Punt6–3
LAQ2 2:18511Punt6–3
CINQ2 1:13426Field goal6–6
LAQ3 15:00742Field goal9–6
CINQ3 10:371075Touchdown9–13
LAQ3 5:34246Turnover9–13
CINQ3 4:57645Field goal9–16
LAQ3 3:09413Punt9–16
CINQ3 0:371035Turnover9–16
LAQ4 10:213-16Punt9–16
CINQ4 8:4635Field goal9–19
LAQ4 7:1345Punt9–19
CINQ4 6:0231Punt9–19
LAQ4 3:341061Touchdown16–19
CINQ4 1:0300End of half16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3326912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams10383.80
Tutu Atwell12222.00
Matthew Stafford177.00
Van Jefferson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua57720
Tyler Higbee55710
Tutu Atwell49501
Van Jefferson13460
Kyren Williams27270
Ben Skowronek1130

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow26/4925901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19653.41
Trayveon Williams144.00
Joe Burrow3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase12151410
Tyler Boyd59390
Tanner Hudson24300
Tee Higgins28210
Mitchell Wilcox23100
Drew Sample1170
Charlie Jones1260
Joe Mixon1250
Trayveon Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.69