Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 12/23 | 114 | 0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 7/18 | 77 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 6 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.