Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 37.1 points. CIN are 2-4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:54 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 8:05 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q1 5:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 3:14 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q1 3:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:37 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 11:38 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LA | Q2 9:14 | 5 | 34 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 6:48 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:26 | 3 | 61 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| CIN | Q2 3:05 | 8 | 43 | Missed field goal | 21–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:30 | 1 | -7 | End of half | 21–3 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Opp touchdown | 28–3 |
| LA | Q3 12:59 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 28–3 |
| CIN | Q3 12:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–3 |
| LA | Q3 11:45 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 28–3 |
| CIN | Q3 8:30 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 28–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:48 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 35–3 |
| CIN | Q3 2:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 35–3 |
| LA | Q3 0:56 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 38–3 |
| CIN | Q4 10:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 38–3 |
| LA | Q4 9:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 38–3 |
| CIN | Q4 7:17 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 38–10 |
| LA | Q4 2:26 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 38–10 |
| CIN | Q4 0:19 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 38–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 12/23 | 114 | 0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 7/18 | 77 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 6 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.