2019 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

17·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -13

Total

46

Model margin

+6.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.203
  • 42.7%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.322
  • +0.004EPA / rush+0.088
  • 9.9%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -1.81CPOE+3.13
  • 36.0%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.90
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. BAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8BAL @ ARI31–24BAL
2015 · W7BAL @ ARI18–26ARI
2011 · W8ARI @ BAL27–30BAL
2007 · W3ARI @ BAL23–26BAL
2003 · W6BAL @ ARI26–18BAL
2000 · W16BAL @ ARI13–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–BAL
ARIQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:02794Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:0632Punt0–7
BALQ1 6:3247Turnover on downs0–7
ARIQ1 4:34653Field goal3–7
BALQ1 2:18860Field goal3–10
ARIQ2 14:071288Field goal6–10
BALQ2 8:31985Touchdown6–17
ARIQ2 3:49617Punt6–17
BALQ2 2:434-5Punt6–17
ARIQ2 0:59317End of half6–17
BALQ3 15:0049Punt6–17
ARIQ3 12:48873Field goal9–17
BALQ3 9:001771Field goal9–20
ARIQ4 14:56579Touchdown17–20
BALQ4 12:52842Field goal17–23
ARIQ4 8:5631Punt17–23
BALQ4 7:30724Punt17–23
ARIQ4 3:4840Punt17–23
BALQ4 3:13755End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray25/4034900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson7142.01
Kyler Murray341.30
Chase Edmonds122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk681140
Larry Fitzgerald5111040
Damiere Byrd67450
KeeSean Johnson12310
Maxx Williams11210
Chase Edmonds22150
Michael Crabtree23130
Charles Clay1260
David Johnson1100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson24/3727220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson161207.50
Mark Ingram13473.60
Gus Edwards3113.70
Justice Hill144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews891121
Marquise Brown813860
Mark Ingram22300
Nick Boyle13140
Miles Boykin13110
Justice Hill12100
Willie Snead1150
Patrick Ricard1130
Hayden Hurst1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.83