Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
46
Model margin
+6.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.203
- 42.7%Success rate48.1%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.322
- +0.004EPA / rush+0.088
- 9.9%Explosive rate12.0%
- -1.81CPOE+3.13
- 36.0%Third-down rate48.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.85Points / drive2.90
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. BAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 25/40 | 349 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/37 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 120 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 13 | 86 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.83