Closing spread
BAL -12
Total
43
Model margin
+3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.041
- 41.4%Success rate41.6%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.057
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.82CPOE-1.68
- 32.0%Third-down rate42.5%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.38Points / drive1.79
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. BAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 10/21 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 98 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 31/51 | 336 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 12 | 145 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 6 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.58
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.99