2011 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

27·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -12

Total

43

Model margin

+3.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.041
  • 41.4%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.057
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -5.82CPOE-1.68
  • 32.0%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.79
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. BAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8BAL @ ARI31–24BAL
2019 · W2ARI @ BAL17–23BAL
2015 · W7BAL @ ARI18–26ARI
2007 · W3ARI @ BAL23–26BAL
2003 · W6BAL @ ARI26–18BAL
2000 · W16BAL @ ARI13–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–BAL
ARIQ1 15:00107Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:52618Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:15673Field goal3–0
BALQ1 3:561482Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 12:26631Punt3–3
BALQ2 10:063-12Turnover3–3
ARIQ2 8:5822Touchdown10–3
BALQ2 8:22517Opp touchdown17–3
BALQ2 6:0610Turnover17–3
ARIQ2 5:57425Touchdown24–3
BALQ2 3:461351Field goal24–6
ARIQ2 0:34113End of half24–6
BALQ3 15:00869Touchdown24–13
ARIQ3 12:13613Punt24–13
BALQ3 8:2557Punt24–13
ARIQ3 6:353-3Punt24–13
BALQ3 4:441288Touchdown24–20
ARIQ3 1:3210Turnover24–20
BALQ3 1:17410Touchdown24–27
ARIQ4 14:551438Field goal27–27
BALQ4 8:5537Punt27–27
ARIQ4 7:5833Punt27–27
BALQ4 5:57831Punt27–27
ARIQ4 3:0765Punt27–27
BALQ4 0:52339Field goal27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb10/2115311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells22833.81
LaRod Stephens-Howling5173.40
Kevin Kolb155.00
Chester Taylor133.00
Alfonso Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald35980
Jeff King33290
Early Doucet26201
Chester Taylor1130
Rob Housler1230
LaRod Stephens-Howling0100
Andre Roberts0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco31/5133601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice18633.53
Ricky Williams4297.30
Joe Flacco4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin7121450
Torrey Smith39570
Ed Dickson69460
Dennis Pitta68440
Ray Rice79360
Ricky Williams2280
LaQuan Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.58
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.99