2000 · Week 16

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

13·7

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -15

Total

37.5

Model margin

-3.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCardinals
  • -0.056EPA / play-0.126
  • 40.2%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.052EPA / rush-0.243
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 36.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.04
  • 2.3%Turnover rate4.0%
  • -0.217EPA / play allowed+0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8BAL @ ARI31–24BAL
2019 · W2ARI @ BAL17–23BAL
2015 · W7BAL @ ARI18–26ARI
2011 · W8ARI @ BAL27–30BAL
2007 · W3ARI @ BAL23–26BAL
2003 · W6BAL @ ARI26–18BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:351268Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 7:121263Turnover3–0
BALQ1 0:51622Punt3–0
ARIQ2 12:4130Punt3–0
BALQ2 12:143-19Punt3–0
ARIQ2 10:34824Missed field goal3–0
BALQ2 7:30621Punt3–0
ARIQ2 4:30213Turnover3–0
BALQ2 3:3233Turnover3–0
ARIQ2 2:15865Turnover on downs3–0
BALQ2 0:48418Punt3–0
ARIQ2 0:151-1End of half3–0
BALQ3 15:00521Punt3–0
ARIQ3 12:03847Touchdown3–7
BALQ3 9:413-6Punt3–7
ARIQ3 8:2425Turnover3–7
BALQ3 7:4936Touchdown10–7
ARIQ3 6:18512Punt10–7
BALQ3 3:59623Field goal13–7
ARIQ3 0:21610Punt13–7
BALQ4 12:281-5Turnover13–7
ARIQ4 12:20110Turnover13–7
BALQ4 12:12629Punt13–7
ARIQ4 7:461253Turnover on downs13–7
BALQ4 1:57633End of half13–7

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer12/227001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis291264.31
Priest Holmes4287.00
Trent Dilfer3175.70
Brandon Stokley166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe48370
Pat Johnson23270
Ben Coates2280
Jamal Lewis3350
Qadry Ismail0200
Brandon Stokley0200
Priest Holmes11-70

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer23/4326612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones14392.80
Michael Pittman561.20
Jake Plummer461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston510930
Frank Sanders59761
Thomas Jones79410
Mac Cody22310
Terry Hardy22180
Dennis McKinley1340
Michael Pittman1130
Chris Gedney0200
MarTay Jenkins0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -152.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.3%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.69