Closing spread
BAL -15
Total
37.5
Model margin
-3.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.126
- 40.2%Success rate39.0%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.243
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- 40.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.45Points / drive1.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate4.0%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/22 | 70 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 29 | 126 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/43 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 5 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.3%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.69