Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
37
Model margin
-3.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.154
- 38.5%Success rate39.4%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.074EPA / rush-0.236
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- 31.7%Third-down rate37.2%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.53Points / drive0.93
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 9/18 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 131 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 22/36 | 247 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.00