2003 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

26·18

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jeff Blake

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 96°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

37

Model margin

-3.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCardinals
  • -0.093EPA / play-0.154
  • 38.5%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.112EPA / dropback-0.108
  • -0.074EPA / rush-0.236
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 31.7%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.53Points / drive0.93
  • 3.5%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed+0.075

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8BAL @ ARI31–24BAL
2019 · W2ARI @ BAL17–23BAL
2015 · W7BAL @ ARI18–26ARI
2011 · W8ARI @ BAL27–30BAL
2007 · W3ARI @ BAL23–26BAL
2000 · W16BAL @ ARI13–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00669Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 10:591171Field goal3–7
ARIQ1 4:1637Punt3–7
BALQ1 2:28628Punt3–7
ARIQ2 14:04518Turnover3–7
BALQ2 11:53831Field goal6–7
ARIQ2 7:2036Punt6–7
BALQ2 5:37553Field goal9–7
ARIQ2 3:1132Opp touchdown16–7
ARIQ2 1:47530Field goal16–10
BALQ2 0:0200End of half16–10
BALQ3 15:001156Punt16–10
ARIQ3 8:54958Opp touchdown23–10
ARIQ3 4:0348Turnover on downs23–10
BALQ3 1:521133Field goal26–10
ARIQ4 11:17520Punt26–10
BALQ4 8:4837Punt26–10
ARIQ4 6:43620Turnover26–10
BALQ4 3:2735Punt26–10
ARIQ4 1:54882Touchdown26–18
BALQ4 0:1511End of half26–18

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller9/187500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis211316.20
Chester Taylor10454.50
Travis Taylor3299.70
Kyle Boller252.50
Alan Ricard231.50

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake22/3624723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp14614.40
Jeff Blake4297.30
Damien Anderson144.00
Kevin Kasper1-4-4.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-3.00