2015 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

18·26

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -10

Total

49.5

Model margin

+6.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCardinals
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.133
  • 42.4%Success rate47.7%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.059
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.66CPOE+4.51
  • 37.0%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.34
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8BAL @ ARI31–24BAL
2019 · W2ARI @ BAL17–23BAL
2011 · W8ARI @ BAL27–30BAL
2007 · W3ARI @ BAL23–26BAL
2003 · W6BAL @ ARI26–18BAL
2000 · W16BAL @ ARI13–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00743Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 10:52921Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 5:25380Touchdown3–7
BALQ1 3:591355Punt3–7
ARIQ2 11:45522Punt3–7
BALQ2 8:39884Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 3:5439Punt10–7
ARIQ2 2:4871Touchdown10–14
BALQ2 1:0138Punt10–14
BALQ3 15:003-11Punt10–14
ARIQ3 12:54646Field goal10–17
BALQ3 9:47729Punt10–17
ARIQ3 6:25784Field goal10–20
BALQ3 2:27518Punt10–20
ARIQ4 14:161179Touchdown10–26
BALQ4 8:083-1Punt10–26
ARIQ4 6:4236Punt16–26
BALQ4 4:3111Touchdown18–26
ARIQ4 4:26945Punt18–26
BALQ4 1:531072Turnover18–26
ARIQ4 0:0600End of half18–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/4025211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett12363.01
Javorius Allen3258.30
Chris Givens1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith59780
Crockett Gillmore57530
Chris Givens12310
Marlon Brown35220
Nick Boyle22200
Javorius Allen11100
Jeremy Ross1190
Justin Forsett3480
Kamar Aiken1360

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/2927520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson181226.81
Andre Ellington5214.20
David Johnson351.70
Carson Palmer221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown46651
Jermaine Gresham46620
Michael Floyd34591
Larry Fitzgerald35390
Andre Ellington34280
David Johnson22190
Jaron Brown1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.80