Closing spread
ARI -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.133
- 42.4%Success rate47.7%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.66CPOE+4.51
- 37.0%Third-down rate47.4%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.48Points / drive2.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/40 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/29 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 18 | 122 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.80