Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.108
- 42.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.38CPOE+1.46
- 36.9%Third-down rate37.9%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.68Points / drive1.35
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. BAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 15/20 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 9/20 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 20/27 | 198 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 8/10 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10