2007 · Week 3

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Matt Leinart

23·26

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

35.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.037EPA / play-0.108
  • 42.9%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.090
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.2%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +0.38CPOE+1.46
  • 36.9%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.35
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. BAL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8BAL @ ARI31–24BAL
2019 · W2ARI @ BAL17–23BAL
2015 · W7BAL @ ARI18–26ARI
2011 · W8ARI @ BAL27–30BAL
2003 · W6BAL @ ARI26–18BAL
2000 · W16BAL @ ARI13–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–BAL
BALQ1 15:001382Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 7:14737Punt0–3
BALQ1 4:411372Field goal0–6
ARIQ2 10:5233Punt0–6
BALQ2 9:07419Punt0–6
ARIQ2 6:55551Field goal3–6
BALQ2 5:14765Touchdown3–13
ARIQ2 1:5530Opp touchdown3–20
ARIQ2 0:55616Missed field goal3–20
BALQ2 0:1800End of half3–20
ARIQ3 15:00823Punt3–20
BALQ3 11:02615Turnover3–20
ARIQ3 8:1468Field goal6–20
BALQ3 5:1800Turnover6–20
ARIQ3 5:17127Turnover6–20
BALQ3 5:01948Field goal6–23
ARIQ3 0:16771Touchdown13–23
BALQ4 12:0233Punt13–23
ARIQ4 10:52254Touchdown20–23
BALQ4 10:19741Punt20–23
ARIQ4 5:331074Field goal23–23
BALQ4 1:50837Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner15/2025820
Matt Leinart9/205300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James10575.70
J.J. Arrington231.50
Matt Leinart122.00
Marcel Shipp1-1-1.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair20/2719810
Kyle Boller8/108300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee21984.70
Musa Smith5153.00
Steve McNair3144.70
Kyle Boller122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.10