2023 · Week 8

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

31·24

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-4.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCardinals
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.055
  • 47.3%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.082
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.73CPOE-2.77
  • 42.3%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W2ARI @ BAL17–23BAL
2015 · W7BAL @ ARI18–26ARI
2011 · W8ARI @ BAL27–30BAL
2007 · W3ARI @ BAL23–26BAL
2003 · W6BAL @ ARI26–18BAL
2000 · W16BAL @ ARI13–7BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001452Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 8:051266Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 2:38631Turnover on downs7–7
BALQ2 14:57620Missed field goal7–7
ARIQ2 11:55621Turnover on downs7–7
BALQ2 8:5537Punt7–7
ARIQ2 7:3239Punt7–7
BALQ2 5:2833Punt7–7
ARIQ2 4:05521Turnover7–7
BALQ2 1:52643Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 0:2000End of half14–7
BALQ3 15:005-2Punt14–7
ARIQ3 12:315-9Punt14–7
BALQ3 9:41517Punt14–7
ARIQ3 7:20619Punt14–7
BALQ3 3:5236Punt14–7
ARIQ3 1:5110Turnover14–7
BALQ3 1:45323Touchdown21–7
ARIQ3 0:403-7Punt21–7
BALQ4 14:16842Field goal24–7
ARIQ4 9:27975Touchdown24–15
BALQ4 6:321044Touchdown31–15
ARIQ4 2:511173Touchdown31–21
BALQ4 1:1400Field goal31–21
ARIQ4 1:11426Field goal31–24
BALQ4 0:2600End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2715710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards19804.23
Rashod Bateman11818.00
Lamar Jackson5173.40
Justice Hill4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews45401
Justice Hill44400
Rashod Bateman22340
Zay Flowers57190
Gus Edwards22140
Isaiah Likely11100
Odell Beckham Jr.0400
Nelson Agholor0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs25/3720822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emari Demercado20783.90
Joshua Dobbs6264.31
Rondale Moore2115.50
Keaontay Ingram294.50
Damien Williams252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride1014951
Michael Wilson46580
Marquise Brown69331
Rondale Moore23100
Keaontay Ingram1170
Damien Williams1140
Emari Demercado1110
Zach Pascal0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.5%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.75