Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-4.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.055
- 47.3%Success rate41.0%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.082
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.73CPOE-2.77
- 42.3%Third-down rate39.6%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/27 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 25/37 | 208 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 10 | 14 | 95 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 9 | 33 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.5%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.75