2019 · Week 3

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

20·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

LA -4

Total

48

Model margin

+0.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.027
  • 44.3%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.88CPOE-3.23
  • 38.8%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.80
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13CLE @ LA19–36RAMS
2015 · W7CLE @ STL6–24RAMS
2011 · W10STL @ CLE13–12RAMS
2007 · W8CLE @ STL27–20CLE
2003 · W14STL @ CLE26–20RAMS
1999 · W7CLE @ STL3–34RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:5636Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:2237Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:041051Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 4:061375Field goal3–3
LAQ2 11:41631Punt3–3
CLEQ2 9:2736Punt3–3
LAQ2 7:42632Missed field goal3–3
CLEQ2 4:08426Punt3–3
LAQ2 2:02624Turnover3–3
CLEQ2 0:1830Field goal3–6
LAQ3 15:001075Touchdown10–6
CLEQ3 10:401365Touchdown10–13
LAQ3 4:37315Turnover10–13
CLEQ3 3:3132Punt10–13
LAQ3 2:00876Touchdown17–13
CLEQ4 12:48737Turnover on downs17–13
LAQ4 9:14828Field goal20–13
CLEQ4 6:373-8Punt20–13
LAQ4 4:2337Turnover20–13
CLEQ4 2:461148Turnover20–13
LAQ4 0:2700End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/3826822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14433.10
Robert Woods2189.00
Jared Goff4143.50
Brandin Cooks188.00
Malcolm Brown372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks8121120
Cooper Kupp11121012
Robert Woods38400
Gerald Everett22150
Malcolm Brown0100
Todd Gurley0100
Josh Reynolds0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/3619511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb23964.20
Baker Mayfield1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry39620
Odell Beckham Jr.69560
Nick Chubb47350
Damion Ratley35260
Ricky Seals-Jones12140
Demetrius Harris1221

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.49