Closing spread
LA -4
Total
48
Model margin
+0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.027
- 44.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.88CPOE-3.23
- 38.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.95Points / drive1.80
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/38 | 268 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 12 | 112 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 12 | 101 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/36 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 23 | 96 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.49