Closing spread
STL -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:56 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:18 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:13 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q1 1:24 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:05 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q2 13:19 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:58 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| CLE | Q2 8:01 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:32 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| CLE | Q2 1:52 | 4 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 16–7 |
| CLE | Q2 1:04 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 16–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:39 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 23–7 |
| CLE | Q2 0:22 | 2 | 16 | End of half | 23–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–7 |
| CLE | Q3 12:58 | 6 | 47 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| LA | Q3 10:31 | 12 | 49 | Field goal | 26–13 |
| CLE | Q3 3:53 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 26–13 |
| LA | Q3 2:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 26–13 |
| CLE | Q3 1:06 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 26–20 |
| LA | Q4 10:17 | 11 | 49 | Missed field goal | 26–20 |
| CLE | Q4 4:48 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 26–20 |
| LA | Q4 2:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 26–20 |
| CLE | Q4 2:11 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 26–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:48 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 26–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 6/9 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 10/17 | 80 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 1 |
| James Jackson | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.70
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.