Closing spread
STL -18.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 22/40 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Shepherd | 6 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| David Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.