Closing spread
STL -18.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 8:34 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:22 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CLE | Q1 6:49 | 12 | 56 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 0:17 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| CLE | Q2 10:59 | 7 | 61 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LA | Q2 6:47 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 3–21 |
| CLE | Q2 2:36 | 13 | 91 | End of half | 3–21 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 12:50 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 3–21 |
| CLE | Q3 8:25 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LA | Q3 6:46 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| CLE | Q3 3:13 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 1:47 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| CLE | Q4 14:50 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 3–31 |
| LA | Q4 13:06 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–31 |
| CLE | Q4 10:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–31 |
| LA | Q4 9:44 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 3–34 |
| CLE | Q4 4:06 | 8 | 34 | Turnover | 3–34 |
| LA | Q4 2:03 | 2 | 21 | End of half | 3–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 22/40 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Shepherd | 6 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| David Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.