2023 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

19·36

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRams
  • -0.127EPA / play+0.042
  • 39.3%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.085
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -5.66CPOE-3.54
  • 32.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.13
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. LA are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W3LA @ CLE20–13RAMS
2015 · W7CLE @ STL6–24RAMS
2011 · W10STL @ CLE13–12RAMS
2007 · W8CLE @ STL27–20CLE
2003 · W14STL @ CLE26–20RAMS
1999 · W7CLE @ STL3–34RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–LA
CLEQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 10:18629Field goal7–3
CLEQ1 6:2837Punt7–3
LAQ1 4:48279Touchdown7–10
CLEQ1 3:59419Punt7–10
LAQ1 2:1279Missed field goal7–10
CLEQ2 14:56517Punt7–10
LAQ2 11:2433Punt7–10
CLEQ2 9:4836Punt7–10
LAQ2 8:21428Punt7–10
CLEQ2 6:3031Punt7–10
LAQ2 5:2833Punt7–10
CLEQ2 4:37753Field goal10–10
LAQ2 2:061266Field goal10–13
LAQ3 15:00425Punt10–13
CLEQ3 12:321579Field goal13–13
LAQ3 4:58790Touchdown13–20
CLEQ3 0:391375Touchdown19–20
LAQ4 8:49415Punt19–20
CLEQ4 6:5110Turnover19–20
LAQ4 6:32524Touchdown19–27
CLEQ4 3:4849Turnover on downs19–27
LAQ4 2:29530Touchdown19–34
CLEQ4 1:564-14Safety19–36
LAQ4 0:3600End of half19–36

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/4425421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt12484.00
Pierre Strong22010.00
Jerome Ford9192.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Moore412830
Harrison Bryant55491
Amari Cooper35340
Jerome Ford33331
Cedric Tillman26200
David Njoku26170
David Bell22120
Jordan Akins1160
Kareem Hunt1100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3727930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams21884.21
Puka Nacua23417.00
Royce Freeman100.00
Matthew Stafford1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua471051
Demarcus Robinson45551
Cooper Kupp68391
Tyler Higbee24350
Kyren Williams35240
Ben Skowronek23120
Tutu Atwell1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.25