Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play+0.042
- 39.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -5.66CPOE-3.54
- 32.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.56Points / drive2.13
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. LA are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/44 | 254 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 5 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| David Bell | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/37 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 7 | 105 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25