2015 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

6·24

Rams

St. Louis

QB Nick Foles

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

STL -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

STL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

STL lead 6–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13CLE @ LA19–36RAMS
2019 · W3LA @ CLE20–13RAMS
2011 · W10STL @ CLE13–12RAMS
2007 · W8CLE @ STL27–20CLE
2003 · W14STL @ CLE26–20RAMS
1999 · W7CLE @ STL3–34RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–STL
LAQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:16311Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 11:5955Turnover0–7
LAQ1 9:1534Field goal0–10
CLEQ1 7:331563Field goal3–10
LAQ2 14:05418Punt3–10
CLEQ2 11:4637Punt3–10
LAQ2 9:3730Punt3–10
CLEQ2 9:07312Punt3–10
LAQ2 7:53644Turnover3–10
CLEQ2 4:22841Punt3–10
LAQ2 0:58543Missed field goal3–10
CLEQ2 0:0410End of half3–10
CLEQ3 15:00554Field goal6–10
LAQ3 11:45763Missed field goal6–10
CLEQ3 8:32857Punt6–10
LAQ3 4:09562Touchdown6–17
CLEQ3 2:14427Punt6–17
LAQ4 14:4935Punt6–17
CLEQ4 13:17315Turnover6–17
LAQ4 12:17851Touchdown6–24
CLEQ4 8:111040Turnover6–24
LAQ4 5:17421Punt6–24
CLEQ4 3:26732Turnover on downs6–24
LAQ4 1:1000End of half6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown26/3227000
Johnny Manziel4/52700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Turbin5306.00
Josh McCown4215.30
Duke Johnson6172.80
Isaiah Crowell891.10
Johnny Manziel155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge671010
Duke Johnson77730
Travis Benjamin48470
Brian Hartline33220
Andrew Hawkins23210
Taylor Gabriel44150
Jim Dray22100
Robert Turbin2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.90

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.