Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/32 | 270 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 4/5 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 6 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.