2011 · Week 10

Final

Rams

St. Louis

QB Sam Bradford

13·12

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 40mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

STL lead 6–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13CLE @ LA19–36RAMS
2019 · W3LA @ CLE20–13RAMS
2015 · W7CLE @ STL6–24RAMS
2007 · W8CLE @ STL27–20CLE
2003 · W14STL @ CLE26–20RAMS
1999 · W7CLE @ STL3–34RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSTL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:13632Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:481149Field goal0–3
LAQ1 4:511274Touchdown7–3
CLEQ2 14:53513Punt7–3
LAQ2 12:59419Turnover7–3
CLEQ2 11:31737Field goal7–6
LAQ2 7:4138Punt7–6
CLEQ2 6:0547Punt7–6
LAQ2 3:26636Field goal10–6
CLEQ2 1:07776Field goal10–9
LAQ3 15:001055Turnover10–9
CLEQ3 10:40732Punt10–9
LAQ3 7:1338Punt10–9
CLEQ3 4:59778Field goal10–12
LAQ3 0:33527Punt10–12
CLEQ4 13:273-5Punt10–12
LAQ4 11:3933Punt10–12
LAQ4 10:39511Field goal13–12
CLEQ4 7:42939Missed field goal13–12
LAQ4 2:10211End of half13–12

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy20/2721800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya19904.70
Josh Cribbs3217.00
Greg Little11010.00
Colt McCoy441.00
Owen Marecic133.00
Thomas Clayton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little66840
Josh Cribbs35320
Benjamin Watson35300
Seneca Wallace11210
Chris Ogbonnaya22190
Alex Smith22150
Jordan Norwood23140
Thomas Clayton1130
Jordan Cameron0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.34

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.