Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 20/27 | 218 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Clayton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 6 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Thomas Clayton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.