Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39 points. STL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 11:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:27 | 12 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CLE | Q1 5:06 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 2:38 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 13:26 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 8:22 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q2 5:24 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 1:11 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| CLE | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 105 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LA | Q3 8:44 | 12 | 42 | Field goal | 24–20 |
| CLE | Q3 3:26 | 12 | 75 | Field goal | 27–20 |
| LA | Q4 10:35 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 27–20 |
| CLE | Q4 7:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 27–20 |
| LA | Q4 5:56 | 8 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 27–20 |
| CLE | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 27–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:28 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 27–20 |
| CLE | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/25 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.