Closing spread
SF -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.077
- 41.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.061
- 10.1%Explosive rate12.1%
- -3.23CPOE+2.34
- 36.3%Third-down rate45.8%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.80Points / drive2.28
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 8/22 | 100 | 0 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1/1 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/29 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 11 | 114 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.46