2019 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

3·31

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SF -5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge map49ers
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.077
  • 41.3%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.061
  • 10.1%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -3.23CPOE+2.34
  • 36.3%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.28
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 31.4 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13SF @ CLE26–8SF
2023 · W6SF @ CLE17–19CLE
2015 · W14SF @ CLE10–24CLE
2011 · W8CLE @ SF10–20SF
2007 · W17SF @ CLE7–20CLE
2003 · W3CLE @ SF13–12CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–SF
CLEQ1 15:00422Punt0–6
SFQ1 13:28183Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 13:1710Turnover0–7
SFQ1 13:0231Punt0–7
CLEQ1 12:013-6Punt0–7
SFQ1 10:23959Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 6:2657Turnover0–14
SFQ1 3:34410Missed field goal0–14
CLEQ1 1:09951Field goal3–14
SFQ2 11:22515Punt3–14
CLEQ2 8:32777Turnover3–14
SFQ2 4:45649Touchdown3–21
CLEQ2 1:543-5Punt3–21
SFQ2 0:4434Missed field goal3–21
CLEQ2 0:1010End of half3–21
SFQ3 15:00990Touchdown3–28
CLEQ3 10:37422Punt3–28
SFQ3 9:081482Missed field goal3–28
CLEQ3 1:3130Punt3–28
SFQ3 1:02612Punt3–28
CLEQ4 13:0538Punt3–28
SFQ4 10:27513Punt3–28
SFQ4 7:02418Field goal3–31
CLEQ4 5:0834Punt3–31
SFQ4 3:38313End of half3–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield8/2210002
Odell Beckham Jr.1/12000
Garrett Gilbert0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb16875.40
Odell Beckham Jr.2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry46750
Odell Beckham Jr.26270
Nick Chubb11120
D'Ernest Johnson1160
Demetrius Harris1200
Ricky Seals-Jones0100
Damion Ratley0200
Antonio Callaway0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/2918120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida1111410.41
Tevin Coleman16976.11
Raheem Mostert7344.90
George Kittle11818.00
Marquise Goodwin11515.00
Jimmy Garoppolo4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle68701
Marquise Goodwin34410
Kendrick Bourne22240
Matt Breida33151
Dante Pettis13110
Deebo Samuel Sr.1330
Ross Dwelley22-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.46