Closing spread
CLE -11.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.013
- 36.7%Success rate42.4%
- -0.277EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.63CPOE-2.23
- 31.5%Third-down rate42.7%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 0.92Points / drive1.84
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:48 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:14 | 7 | 51 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:12 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:36 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 1:37 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 0:01 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 11:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CLE | Q2 9:52 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 8:00 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CLE | Q2 3:20 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:04 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 65 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| SF | Q3 8:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q3 6:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–17 |
| SF | Q3 4:08 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q3 2:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| SF | Q3 1:04 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q4 14:15 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| SF | Q4 10:16 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CLE | Q4 6:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SF | Q4 4:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CLE | Q4 3:53 | 8 | 56 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 13/22 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 94 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 11/20 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
| Brady Quinn | 3/8 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37