Closing spread
CLE -11.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.013
- 36.7%Success rate42.4%
- -0.277EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.63CPOE-2.23
- 31.5%Third-down rate42.7%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 0.92Points / drive1.84
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 13/22 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 94 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 11/20 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
| Brady Quinn | 3/8 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37