Closing spread
SF -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.026
- 43.0%Success rate43.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.099
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.6%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 25/38 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/35 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.81