Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.074
- 38.8%Success rate41.1%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.179
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- -3.50CPOE-0.75
- 30.2%Third-down rate41.6%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 1.32Points / drive1.32
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 18/28 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bell | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Leonhardt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 21/31 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 20 | 145 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Duke Johnson | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Glenn Winston | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 8 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.17