2015 · Week 14

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

10·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Browns wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.074
  • 38.8%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.179
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -3.50CPOE-0.75
  • 30.2%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.32
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13SF @ CLE26–8SF
2023 · W6SF @ CLE17–19CLE
2019 · W5CLE @ SF3–31SF
2011 · W8CLE @ SF10–20SF
2007 · W17SF @ CLE7–20CLE
2003 · W3CLE @ SF13–12CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001156Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 9:483-1Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:05684Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 5:38518Punt0–7
CLEQ1 2:50326Turnover0–7
SFQ1 1:44515Turnover on downs0–7
CLEQ2 14:561071Field goal0–10
SFQ2 9:0437Punt0–10
CLEQ2 7:283-5Punt0–10
SFQ2 5:4236Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 4:121124Turnover3–10
SFQ2 1:1033Punt3–10
CLEQ2 0:2500End of half3–10
SFQ3 15:00834Punt3–10
CLEQ3 10:44644Punt3–10
SFQ3 7:1162Punt3–10
CLEQ3 4:29878Touchdown3–17
SFQ3 0:14421Punt3–17
CLEQ4 13:351088Touchdown3–24
SFQ4 8:48837Turnover on downs3–24
CLEQ4 5:54619Punt3–24
SFQ4 3:22879Touchdown10–24
CLEQ4 1:4200End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert18/2819410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Draughn11433.90
Blaine Gabbert3196.30
Travaris Cadet263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Blake Bell33490
Quinton Patton59460
Travaris Cadet22280
Anquan Boldin23220
Jerome Simpson24201
Torrey Smith12170
Shaun Draughn2380
Brian Leonhardt1140
Bruce Ellington0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel21/3127011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell201457.32
Duke Johnson13786.00
Johnny Manziel7152.10
Glenn Winston1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline8101070
Gary Barnidge57841
Travis Benjamin47410
Marlon Moore23230
Isaiah Crowell1190
Duke Johnson1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.17