Closing spread
SF -9.5
Total
36
Model margin
-1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.127
- 51.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.131
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.121
- 13.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.51CPOE-5.66
- 48.1%Third-down rate32.3%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.69Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 12/27 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 18/34 | 192 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.26
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.84