2023 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

17·19

Browns

Cleveland

QB Phillip Walker

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -9.5

Total

36

Model margin

-1.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Browns wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.127
  • 51.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.131
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.121
  • 13.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.51CPOE-5.66
  • 48.1%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13SF @ CLE26–8SF
2019 · W5CLE @ SF3–31SF
2015 · W14SF @ CLE10–24CLE
2011 · W8CLE @ SF10–20SF
2007 · W17SF @ CLE7–20CLE
2003 · W3CLE @ SF13–12CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CLE
SFQ1 15:00654Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 12:16632Turnover7–0
SFQ1 8:463-5Missed field goal7–0
CLEQ1 6:50637Missed field goal7–0
SFQ1 3:5147Punt7–0
CLEQ1 2:08614Punt7–0
SFQ2 14:221171Field goal10–0
CLEQ2 7:54583Touchdown10–7
SFQ2 5:381123Punt10–7
CLEQ2 1:36523Punt10–7
SFQ2 0:2100End of half10–7
CLEQ3 15:00848Field goal10–10
SFQ3 11:0930Turnover10–10
CLEQ3 10:084-9Punt10–10
SFQ3 8:163-12Punt10–10
CLEQ3 5:47518Field goal10–13
SFQ3 2:59415Punt10–13
CLEQ4 14:5039Punt10–13
SFQ4 13:1630Punt10–13
CLEQ4 12:173-1Turnover16–13
SFQ4 11:0418Touchdown17–13
CLEQ4 10:581438Field goal17–16
SFQ4 3:21310Punt17–16
CLEQ4 2:561043Field goal17–19
SFQ4 1:40845Missed field goal17–19
CLEQ4 0:0600End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy12/2712511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey11433.90
Jordan Mason5275.41
Ray-Ray McCloud22311.50
Deebo Samuel Sr.2115.50
Brock Purdy372.30
Elijah Mitchell2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk410760
Jauan Jennings24260
Christian McCaffrey3391
Ray-Ray McCloud1240
George Kittle1210
Ross Dwelley0100
Deebo Samuel Sr.0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker18/3419202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford17844.90
Kareem Hunt12473.91
Marquise Goodwin12020.00
Elijah Moore188.00
PJ Walker310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper481080
David Njoku34240
Kareem Hunt33240
Elijah Moore47190
Jerome Ford2270
David Bell1360
Marquise Goodwin1240
Jordan Akins0200
Harrison Bryant0100
Donovan Peoples-Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.26
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.84