2011 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

10·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -9

Total

38.5

Model margin

+6.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge map49ers
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.009
  • 40.3%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.091
  • 5.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -4.62CPOE-0.45
  • 38.1%Third-down rate29.6%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.87
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 31.4 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13SF @ CLE26–8SF
2023 · W6SF @ CLE17–19CLE
2019 · W5CLE @ SF3–31SF
2015 · W14SF @ CLE10–24CLE
2007 · W17SF @ CLE7–20CLE
2003 · W3CLE @ SF13–12CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–SF
CLEQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
SFQ1 14:19514Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 12:44517Punt0–7
SFQ1 9:581093Field goal0–10
CLEQ1 2:55521Punt0–10
SFQ1 0:461082Turnover on downs0–10
CLEQ2 9:47620Punt0–10
SFQ2 5:521264Touchdown0–17
CLEQ2 1:31835Field goal3–17
SFQ3 15:0036Punt3–17
CLEQ3 13:3330Punt3–17
SFQ3 11:25637Punt3–17
CLEQ3 7:29652Turnover3–17
SFQ3 4:243-4Punt3–17
CLEQ3 3:19619Punt3–17
SFQ3 0:2938Punt3–17
CLEQ4 14:0064Punt3–17
SFQ4 10:173-4Punt3–17
CLEQ4 8:41880Touchdown10–17
SFQ4 6:171052Field goal10–20
CLEQ4 1:56742End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy22/3424111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya11373.40
Colt McCoy8303.80
Montario Hardesty263.00
Owen Marecic111.00
Greg Little1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson33640
Josh Cribbs23561
Jordan Norwood56320
Greg Little411280
Chris Ogbonnaya58240
Alex Smith11200
Evan Moore22170

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2417710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore311344.31
Kendall Hunter3268.70
Alex Smith4225.50
Ted Ginn1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree59541
Braylon Edwards47420
Vernon Davis33270
Justin Peelle11190
Ted Ginn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.56