Closing spread
SF -9
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.009
- 40.3%Success rate40.8%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.091
- 5.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- -4.62CPOE-0.45
- 38.1%Third-down rate29.6%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.09Points / drive1.87
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 22/34 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 11 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/24 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 31 | 134 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.56