Closing spread
SF -5.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.176
- 48.5%Success rate35.2%
- +0.175EPA / dropback-0.212
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.1%
- +5.72CPOE-5.66
- 50.4%Third-down rate33.8%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.48Points / drive1.18
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 16/29 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 16/25 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.43