2025 · Week 13

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

26·8

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

SF -5.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Browns wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.176
  • 48.5%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback-0.212
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.115
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +5.72CPOE-5.66
  • 50.4%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.18
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 31.4 points. CLE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6SF @ CLE17–19CLE
2019 · W5CLE @ SF3–31SF
2015 · W14SF @ CLE10–24CLE
2011 · W8CLE @ SF10–20SF
2007 · W17SF @ CLE7–20CLE
2003 · W3CLE @ SF13–12CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CLE
SFQ1 15:00424Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:12521Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:22616Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:121049Turnover on downs7–0
SFQ1 2:5931Punt7–0
CLEQ1 1:28817Punt7–0
SFQ2 12:24935Punt7–0
CLEQ2 6:211090Touchdown7–8
SFQ2 0:39558Field goal10–8
CLEQ3 15:00514Punt10–8
SFQ3 12:11924Punt10–8
CLEQ3 9:0649Turnover10–8
SFQ3 7:05932Touchdown17–8
CLEQ3 1:2931Punt17–8
SFQ3 0:283-1Punt17–8
SFQ4 13:27618Touchdown23–8
CLEQ4 11:05820Turnover on downs23–8
SFQ4 7:24834Field goal26–8
CLEQ4 4:09932Turnover on downs26–8
SFQ4 1:40312End of half26–8

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy16/2916810
Christian McCaffrey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey20532.61
Brian Robinson8263.30
Demarcus Robinson166.00
Brock Purdy242.01
Mac Jones221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle45670
Jauan Jennings46391
Christian McCaffrey44210
Ricky Pearsall23140
Demarcus Robinson0100
Kendrick Bourne0100
Luke Farrell0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders16/2514910
Dillon Gabriel1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins23914.00
Dylan Sampson4235.80
Malachi Corley199.00
Isaiah Bond199.00
Shedeur Sanders166.00
Harold Fannin Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harold Fannin Jr.35431
Jerry Jeudy34260
Gage Larvadain23230
Isaiah Bond12180
Quinshon Judkins33180
Jerome Ford33170
David Njoku2240
Cedric Tillman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.43