2019 · Week 13

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

17·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

+4.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRavens
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.203
  • 44.8%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.061EPA / rush+0.088
  • 12.1%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +2.34CPOE+3.13
  • 45.8%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.90
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16BAL @ SF33–19BAL
2015 · W6BAL @ SF20–25SF
2012 · playoffsBAL @ SF34–31BAL
2011 · W12SF @ BAL6–16BAL
2007 · W5BAL @ SF9–7BAL
2003 · W13SF @ BAL6–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–BAL
SFQ1 15:00774Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 11:53722Punt7–0
SFQ1 8:5757Turnover7–0
BALQ1 6:28223Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 5:4139Punt7–7
BALQ1 4:131465Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 11:58575Touchdown14–14
BALQ2 9:121248Field goal14–17
SFQ2 1:58847Missed field goal14–17
BALQ3 15:00655Turnover14–17
SFQ3 12:031453Field goal17–17
BALQ3 3:37512Punt17–17
SFQ3 1:31741Punt17–17
BALQ4 12:21619Turnover on downs17–17
SFQ4 9:38625Turnover on downs17–17
BALQ4 6:281239Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo15/2116510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert191467.71
Deebo Samuel Sr.12020.00
Tevin Coleman561.20
Jimmy Garoppolo351.70
George Kittle1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne33420
Emmanuel Sanders46410
Deebo Samuel Sr.24411
George Kittle24170
Tevin Coleman1190
Raheem Mostert2280
Jeff Wilson1170

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2310510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson161016.31
Mark Ingram15593.90
Gus Edwards6152.50
Justice Hill133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews36501
Hayden Hurst34210
Willie Snead12120
Gus Edwards1170
Seth Roberts1250
Nick Boyle1240
Mark Ingram2230
Patrick Ricard1220
Marquise Brown1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.43