Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+4.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.203
- 44.8%Success rate48.1%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.061EPA / rush+0.088
- 12.1%Explosive rate12.0%
- +2.34CPOE+3.13
- 45.8%Third-down rate48.0%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.28Points / drive2.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 15/21 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 19 | 146 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/23 | 105 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.43