2012 · SB

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

34·31

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge map49ers
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.105
  • 41.5%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.043EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.0%Explosive rate12.9%
  • -0.27CPOE+5.02
  • 37.1%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.92
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16BAL @ SF33–19BAL
2019 · W13SF @ BAL17–20BAL
2015 · W6BAL @ SF20–25SF
2011 · W12SF @ BAL6–16BAL
2007 · W5BAL @ SF9–7BAL
2003 · W13SF @ BAL6–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–SF
SFQ1 15:0043Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:05746Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 10:361162Field goal7–3
BALQ1 3:58936Punt7–3
SFQ2 14:52555Turnover7–3
BALQ2 11:531071Touchdown14–3
SFQ2 7:1010Turnover14–3
BALQ2 6:55932Turnover on downs14–3
SFQ2 3:0536Punt14–3
BALQ2 2:07356Touchdown21–3
SFQ2 1:45756Field goal27–6
BALQ3 15:0000Touchdown28–6
SFQ3 14:49432Punt28–6
BALQ3 12:10424Punt28–6
SFQ3 10:26780Touchdown28–13
BALQ3 7:203-8Punt28–13
SFQ3 5:47220Touchdown28–20
BALQ3 4:5924Turnover28–20
SFQ3 4:1033Field goal28–23
BALQ3 3:101171Field goal31–23
SFQ4 12:54576Touchdown31–29
BALQ4 9:571140Field goal34–29
SFQ4 4:19975Turnover on downs34–29
BALQ4 1:464-5Safety34–31
SFQ4 0:0400End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3328730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice20593.00
Bernard Pierce12332.80
Justin Tucker188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin6101041
Jacoby Jones12561
Ed Dickson22370
Torrey Smith26350
Dennis Pitta45261
Ray Rice44190

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2830211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore191105.81
Colin Kaepernick7628.91
LaMichael James3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree5101091
Vernon Davis681040
Delanie Walker34480
Randy Moss25410
Ted Ginn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.45