Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.105
- 41.5%Success rate47.9%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.0%Explosive rate12.9%
- -0.27CPOE+5.02
- 37.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.80Points / drive1.92
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/33 | 287 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Tucker | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 10 | 104 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 56 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/28 | 302 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 110 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45