Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
37
Model margin
+5.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.093
- 43.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.074
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.6%Third-down rate31.7%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.53
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:55 | 3 | 30 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 11:27 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q1 9:03 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 6:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q1 5:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:39 | 6 | 51 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q2 14:45 | 9 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 8:46 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q2 4:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 4:36 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| BAL | Q2 3:20 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–10 |
| BAL | Q2 1:18 | 2 | 49 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| SF | Q2 0:46 | 2 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 6–24 |
| SF | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 6–24 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–24 |
| SF | Q3 12:55 | 9 | 46 | Punt | 6–24 |
| BAL | Q3 7:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–24 |
| SF | Q3 6:40 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 6–24 |
| BAL | Q3 3:11 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| SF | Q4 14:55 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 6–27 |
| BAL | Q4 14:34 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 6–34 |
| SF | Q4 13:45 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 6–34 |
| BAL | Q4 13:11 | 4 | 15 | Field goal | 6–37 |
| SF | Q4 11:37 | 8 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 6–37 |
| BAL | Q4 7:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–37 |
| SF | Q4 5:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–37 |
| BAL | Q4 4:50 | 7 | 47 | Touchdown | 6–44 |
| SF | Q4 1:15 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 6–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/29 | 112 | 0 | 4 |
| Tim Rattay | 3/7 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jamal Robertson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 14/25 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.42