Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
37
Model margin
+5.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.093
- 43.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.074
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.6%Third-down rate31.7%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.53
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/29 | 112 | 0 | 4 |
| Tim Rattay | 3/7 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jamal Robertson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 14/25 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.42