2023 · Week 16

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

33·19

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge map49ers
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.179
  • 47.3%Success rate51.6%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.298
  • +0.009EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.8%Explosive rate13.8%
  • +2.73CPOE+4.51
  • 42.3%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.69
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W13SF @ BAL17–20BAL
2015 · W6BAL @ SF20–25SF
2012 · playoffsBAL @ SF34–31BAL
2011 · W12SF @ BAL6–16BAL
2007 · W5BAL @ SF9–7BAL
2003 · W13SF @ BAL6–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–SF
BALQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:59574Turnover0–0
BALQ1 11:39412Safety0–2
SFQ1 10:241047Field goal0–5
BALQ1 5:58928Field goal3–5
SFQ1 0:57438Turnover3–5
BALQ2 14:161153Touchdown10–5
SFQ2 9:3535Turnover10–5
BALQ2 7:543-3Field goal13–5
SFQ2 7:03667Touchdown13–12
BALQ2 3:231384Field goal16–12
SFQ3 15:0035Punt16–12
BALQ3 13:17344Touchdown23–12
SFQ3 12:0710Turnover29–12
BALQ3 11:5219Touchdown30–12
SFQ3 11:49524Punt30–12
BALQ3 9:211089Field goal33–12
SFQ3 2:39739Turnover on downs33–12
BALQ4 14:4758Punt33–12
SFQ4 10:241290Touchdown33–19
BALQ4 6:1932Punt33–19
SFQ4 4:351440Turnover33–19
BALQ4 1:00216End of half33–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson23/3525220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson7456.40
Gus Edwards9313.41
Justice Hill10262.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers913721
Isaiah Likely34560
Gus Edwards11390
Justice Hill33310
Charlie Kolar11170
Rashod Bateman14140
Odell Beckham Jr.23130
Nelson Agholor34101
Patrick Ricard0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy18/3225504
Sam Darnold8/148111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey141037.41
Sam Darnold199.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.273.50
Brock Purdy122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle7101260
Brandon Aiyuk671130
Deebo Samuel Sr.412470
Christian McCaffrey610280
Ronnie Bell11121
Willie Snead1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.64