Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.179
- 47.3%Success rate51.6%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.298
- +0.009EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.8%Explosive rate13.8%
- +2.73CPOE+4.51
- 42.3%Third-down rate48.1%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.25Points / drive2.69
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 23/35 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 9 | 13 | 72 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/32 | 255 | 0 | 4 |
| Sam Darnold | 8/14 | 81 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 7 | 10 | 126 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 7 | 113 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64