Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
35
Model margin
+1.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play-0.254
- 40.5%Success rate36.7%
- -0.090EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.213
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.46CPOE-5.63
- 37.9%Third-down rate31.5%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.35Points / drive0.92
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 29/43 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Yamon Figurs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/19 | 126 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65