2015 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·25

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge map49ers
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.091
  • 42.4%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.66CPOE-3.50
  • 37.0%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.32
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16BAL @ SF33–19BAL
2019 · W13SF @ BAL17–20BAL
2012 · playoffsBAL @ SF34–31BAL
2011 · W12SF @ BAL6–16BAL
2007 · W5BAL @ SF9–7BAL
2003 · W13SF @ BAL6–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–SF
SFQ1 15:00943Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:02510Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:37432Field goal0–3
BALQ1 7:0034Punt0–3
SFQ1 5:26869Field goal0–6
BALQ1 1:56857Field goal3–6
SFQ2 13:16280Touchdown3–13
BALQ2 12:2736Turnover3–13
SFQ2 11:35621Field goal3–16
BALQ2 8:04862Field goal6–16
SFQ2 4:14419Punt6–16
BALQ2 1:4838Punt6–16
SFQ2 0:40215End of half6–16
BALQ3 15:00839Turnover6–16
SFQ3 10:36614Field goal6–19
BALQ3 7:34985Touchdown13–19
SFQ3 2:2930Punt13–19
BALQ3 2:02729Missed field goal13–19
SFQ4 13:37675Touchdown13–25
BALQ4 10:521580Touchdown20–25
SFQ4 5:14823Punt20–25
BALQ4 1:06640End of half20–25

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco33/5334322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett17623.60
Javorius Allen4133.30
Jeremy Ross122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith7101371
Justin Forsett78390
Jeremy Ross35340
Crockett Gillmore36300
Maxx Williams44240
Kamar Aiken38221
Chris Givens22180
Marlon Brown1490
Javorius Allen1380

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2734020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde21552.60
Colin Kaepernick3103.30
Mike Davis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin591020
Torrey Smith36961
Quinton Patton23381
Vance McDonald11100
Carlos Hyde2250
Vernon Davis0100
Garrett Celek0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40