Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.091
- 42.4%Success rate38.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.66CPOE-3.50
- 37.0%Third-down rate30.2%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.48Points / drive1.32
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 33/53 | 343 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 10 | 137 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 8 | 22 | 1 |
| Chris Givens | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/27 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 55 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40