Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.041
- 40.8%Success rate41.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.057
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.45CPOE-1.68
- 29.6%Third-down rate42.5%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.79
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–1 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/24 | 140 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/23 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.18