2011 · Week 12

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

6·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRavens
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.8%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.057
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.45CPOE-1.68
  • 29.6%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.79
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–1 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16BAL @ SF33–19BAL
2019 · W13SF @ BAL17–20BAL
2015 · W6BAL @ SF20–25SF
2012 · playoffsBAL @ SF34–31BAL
2007 · W5BAL @ SF9–7BAL
2003 · W13SF @ BAL6–44BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–BAL
BALQ1 15:00955Field goal0–3
SFQ1 10:2136Punt0–3
BALQ1 8:1338Punt0–3
SFQ1 6:41841Field goal3–3
BALQ1 1:59534Punt3–3
SFQ2 14:465-4Punt3–3
BALQ2 12:0339Punt3–3
SFQ2 9:52512Punt3–3
BALQ2 6:15610Field goal3–6
SFQ2 2:511040Turnover3–6
BALQ2 0:1100End of half3–6
SFQ3 15:001246Field goal6–6
BALQ3 7:301676Touchdown6–13
SFQ4 14:5646Punt6–13
BALQ4 12:54626Punt6–13
SFQ4 9:013-1Punt6–13
BALQ4 7:26739Field goal6–16
SFQ4 3:10731Turnover on downs6–16
BALQ4 1:1500End of half6–16

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2414001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14392.80
Kendall Hunter4143.50
Alex Smith2126.00
Ted Ginn199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree69540
Vernon Davis45380
Ted Ginn23210
Kendall Hunter11130
Frank Gore1290
Braylon Edwards1350
Kyle Williams0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco15/2316110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice21592.80
Ricky Williams7294.10
Joe Flacco620.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin49630
Ray Rice33240
Torrey Smith23230
Dennis Pitta22191
Ed Dickson12150
Lee Evans1180
Ricky Williams12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.18