Closing spread
NE -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play-0.047
- 45.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.27CPOE+0.93
- 41.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.36Points / drive1.54
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/35 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 6 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 68 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 17/21 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 25 | 161 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 8 | 111 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79