2022 · Week 5

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

0·29

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.073EPA / play-0.047
  • 45.7%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.27CPOE+0.93
  • 41.5%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.54
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W3NE @ DET10–26DET
2014 · W12DET @ NE9–34NE
2010 · W12NE @ DET45–24NE
2006 · W13DET @ NE21–28NE
2002 · W13NE @ DET20–12NE
2000 · W13NE @ DET9–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NE
DETQ1 15:00720Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 11:09526Field goal0–3
DETQ1 8:47657Turnover0–3
NEQ1 5:321089Field goal0–6
DETQ2 14:1478Punt0–6
NEQ2 10:03522Turnover0–6
DETQ2 7:32819Opp touchdown0–13
DETQ2 3:2635Punt0–13
NEQ2 1:46749Field goal0–16
NEQ3 15:00931Field goal0–19
DETQ3 10:09841Turnover on downs0–19
NEQ3 6:34866Touchdown0–26
DETQ3 1:511373Turnover on downs0–26
NEQ4 13:1246Punt0–26
DETQ4 11:13633Turnover on downs0–26
NEQ4 9:20657Field goal0–29
DETQ4 5:01757Turnover on downs0–29
NEQ4 3:02423Punt0–29
DETQ4 0:2200End of half0–29

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/3522901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15563.70
Craig Reynolds6244.00
Justin Jackson3144.70
Jared Goff372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds610920
Craig Reynolds33680
Kalif Raymond57450
Amon-Ra St. Brown46180
T.J. Hockenson1460
Justin Jackson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe17/2118811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson251616.40
Damien Harris4112.80
Bailey Zappe551.00
Kendrick Bourne1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers781111
Hunter Henry45540
Rhamondre Stevenson22140
Tyquan Thornton2370
Kendrick Bourne1110
Damien Harris1110
Nelson Agholor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.79