Closing spread
NE -13
Total
41
Model margin
+6.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.063
- 42.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.25CPOE+0.89
- 33.0%Third-down rate43.7%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.48Points / drive1.82
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/38 | 314 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Arlen Harris | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/38 | 305 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.32