Closing spread
NE -13
Total
41
Model margin
+6.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.063
- 42.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.25CPOE+0.89
- 33.0%Third-down rate43.7%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.48Points / drive1.82
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 13:25 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:00 | 17 | 96 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 2:47 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 13:44 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 11:09 | 10 | 55 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 5:28 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 4:17 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 3:19 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DET | Q2 1:15 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:47 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| NE | Q3 9:09 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| DET | Q3 7:54 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| NE | Q3 5:07 | 2 | -10 | Safety | 18–13 |
| DET | Q3 4:22 | 14 | 67 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| NE | Q4 13:07 | 9 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| DET | Q4 8:35 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 21–21 |
| NE | Q4 7:50 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 21–21 |
| DET | Q4 6:45 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 21–21 |
| NE | Q4 5:57 | 7 | 32 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| DET | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| NE | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/38 | 314 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Arlen Harris | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/38 | 305 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.32