2010 · Week 12

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

45·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -6

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapLions
  • +0.191EPA / play-0.043
  • 48.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback+0.013
  • +0.096EPA / rush-0.145
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.77CPOE-3.37
  • 48.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.76Points / drive1.59
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5DET @ NE0–29NE
2018 · W3NE @ DET10–26DET
2014 · W12DET @ NE9–34NE
2006 · W13DET @ NE21–28NE
2002 · W13NE @ DET20–12NE
2000 · W13NE @ DET9–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DET
DETQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:11428Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:2833Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:59741Field goal3–0
DETQ1 5:001171Touchdown3–7
NEQ2 15:00410Punt3–7
DETQ2 12:221363Touchdown3–14
NEQ2 5:581177Touchdown10–14
DETQ2 0:45641Field goal10–17
NEQ3 15:00415Punt10–17
DETQ3 13:55217Turnover10–17
NEQ3 13:06426Touchdown17–17
DETQ3 10:58958Touchdown17–24
NEQ3 6:50387Touchdown24–24
DETQ3 5:12742Missed field goal24–24
NEQ3 1:00569Touchdown31–24
DETQ4 13:45619Punt31–24
NEQ4 11:07989Touchdown38–24
DETQ4 6:42314Turnover38–24
NEQ4 5:4347Touchdown45–24
DETQ4 3:141261Turnover on downs45–24
NEQ4 1:2200End of half45–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/2734140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis12594.92
Danny Woodhead8324.00
Brandon Tate11717.00
Tom Brady410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch351132
Wes Welker810902
Rob Gronkowski55650
Alge Crumpler11270
Aaron Hernandez11180
Sammy Morris11150
Danny Woodhead22130
Brandon Tate0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill27/4628512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris9556.12
Aaron Brown13362.80
Shaun Hill4235.80
Calvin Johnson11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson47811
Brandon Pettigrew57670
Nate Burleson38350
Aaron Brown48290
Bryant Johnson24260
Maurice Morris55200
Will Heller12130
Derrick Williams1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.47