Closing spread
NE -6
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.043
- 48.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.013
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.145
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.77CPOE-3.37
- 48.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.76Points / drive1.59
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/27 | 341 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 3 | 5 | 113 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 8 | 10 | 90 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 27/46 | 285 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Aaron Brown | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.47