2018 · Week 3

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

10·26

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

55.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapLions
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.022
  • 47.3%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.03CPOE-2.79
  • 41.8%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.75
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5DET @ NE0–29NE
2014 · W12DET @ NE9–34NE
2010 · W12NE @ DET45–24NE
2006 · W13DET @ NE21–28NE
2002 · W13NE @ DET20–12NE
2000 · W13NE @ DET9–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DET
NEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:321165Field goal0–3
NEQ1 5:553-1Punt0–3
DETQ1 4:531070Touchdown0–10
NEQ2 14:1238Punt0–10
DETQ2 12:261461Field goal0–13
NEQ2 4:581057Field goal3–13
DETQ2 0:40435End of half3–13
DETQ3 15:0036Turnover3–13
NEQ3 13:34847Touchdown10–13
DETQ3 10:031075Touchdown10–20
NEQ3 3:45516Punt10–20
DETQ3 1:58761Field goal10–23
NEQ4 12:4439Punt10–23
DETQ4 11:0234Punt10–23
NEQ4 9:18417Turnover10–23
DETQ4 7:23736Punt10–23
NEQ4 4:364-2Turnover on downs10–23
DETQ4 3:1631Field goal10–26
NEQ4 1:56552End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady14/2613311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel14503.60
James White4379.30
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski45510
Chris Hogan34310
Rex Burkhead23260
James White33141
Cordarrelle Patterson11120
Phillip Dorsett0500
Sony Michel13-10

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/3626221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson161016.30
LeGarrette Blount16483.00
Matthew Stafford11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate68690
Marvin Jones46691
Kenny Golladay67531
Theo Riddick33360
LeGarrette Blount22170
Luke Willson23100
Kerryon Johnson2390
T.J. Jones1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.07