Closing spread
NE -7
Total
55.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.022
- 47.3%Success rate41.5%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.03CPOE-2.79
- 41.8%Third-down rate36.1%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.32Points / drive1.75
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/26 | 133 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/36 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07