Closing spread
NE -6
Total
46
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play-0.148
- 43.6%Success rate34.3%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- 43.1%Third-down rate29.8%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.69Points / drive0.96
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:06 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:44 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DET | Q1 6:12 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:08 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| DET | Q2 13:37 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 11:20 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DET | Q2 8:23 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 7:28 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DET | Q2 4:37 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 4:06 | 4 | 19 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| DET | Q2 2:24 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| NE | Q2 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–6 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NE | Q3 13:33 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 17–6 |
| DET | Q3 10:03 | 13 | 59 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| NE | Q3 4:12 | 12 | 78 | Field goal | 20–9 |
| DET | Q4 13:17 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 20–12 |
| NE | Q4 9:46 | 20 | 75 | End of half | 20–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/30 | 210 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 25 | 80 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 10 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 22/44 | 210 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32