2014 · Week 12

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

9·34

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.090
  • 41.8%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -4.76CPOE+1.32
  • 38.3%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.38
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5DET @ NE0–29NE
2018 · W3NE @ DET10–26DET
2010 · W12NE @ DET45–24NE
2006 · W13DET @ NE21–28NE
2002 · W13NE @ DET20–12NE
2000 · W13NE @ DET9–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NE
DETQ1 15:00750Field goal3–0
NEQ1 11:4447Punt3–0
DETQ1 10:053-8Punt3–0
NEQ1 8:4240Punt3–0
DETQ1 7:273-6Punt3–0
NEQ1 5:47964Touchdown3–7
DETQ1 3:101074Field goal6–7
NEQ2 13:37219Touchdown6–14
DETQ2 12:431031Punt6–14
NEQ2 7:451393Touchdown6–21
DETQ2 2:42840Missed field goal6–21
NEQ2 0:35455Field goal6–24
NEQ3 15:001060Turnover6–24
DETQ3 11:57620Punt6–24
NEQ3 8:321045Field goal6–27
DETQ3 5:0530Punt6–27
NEQ3 4:263-2Punt6–27
DETQ3 2:54939Field goal9–27
NEQ4 14:4836Punt9–27
DETQ4 13:561253Turnover on downs9–27
NEQ4 11:25827Punt9–27
DETQ4 7:03212Turnover9–27
NEQ4 6:23965Touchdown9–34
NEQ4 1:5300Touchdown9–34
DETQ4 1:53631End of half9–34

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/4626401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell19482.50
Matthew Stafford3186.00
Golden Tate11313.00
Theo Riddick2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate411970
Calvin Johnson410580
Theo Riddick36400
Jeremy Ross35350
Eric Ebron27230
Corey Fuller12130
Joseph Fauria0200
Joique Bell12-20

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady38/5334921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount12786.52
Shane Vereen8121.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell912980
Julian Edelman1115890
Rob Gronkowski510780
Shane Vereen89480
Timothy Wright56362
Danny Amendola0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.50