Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.090
- 41.8%Success rate46.4%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -4.76CPOE+1.32
- 38.3%Third-down rate45.6%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.79Points / drive2.38
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NE are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/46 | 264 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 4 | 11 | 97 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 38/53 | 349 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 9 | 12 | 98 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 11 | 15 | 89 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 5 | 6 | 36 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50