Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.143
- 38.3%Success rate36.6%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.141
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.146
- 5.5%Explosive rate6.7%
- 35.1%Third-down rate31.8%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate47.8%
- 1.30Points / drive1.23
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 13:17 | 12 | 68 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DET | Q1 5:41 | 6 | -4 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 2:20 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| DET | Q1 1:23 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| NE | Q2 12:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–6 |
| DET | Q2 11:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–6 |
| NE | Q2 9:25 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 6–6 |
| DET | Q2 5:10 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 6–6 |
| NE | Q2 1:03 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–6 |
| DET | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 6–6 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| DET | Q3 8:51 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 9–13 |
| NE | Q3 3:45 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 9–13 |
| DET | Q3 1:43 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 9–20 |
| NE | Q4 11:18 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 9–20 |
| DET | Q4 10:26 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 9–27 |
| NE | Q4 8:55 | 15 | 44 | Opp touchdown | 9–34 |
| DET | Q4 4:13 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 9–34 |
| NE | Q4 4:13 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 9–34 |
| DET | Q4 2:55 | 5 | 36 | End of half | 9–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/32 | 148 | 0 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 1/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Redmond | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 5 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Shockmain Davis | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 16/24 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Stoney Case | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Sloan | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04